Let's say your target speed is S, and your uphill speed is Su. Then:
2/S - 1/Su = 1/Sd
Use this to figure out what your downhill speed needs to be to keep up the average. This is entertaining:
If I go 9 MPH up the hill (optimistic), and I want to keep a 15 MPH average through the ride (reasonable), then on the downhill side...
2/15 - 1/9 = 1/45
...I only need to go 45 MPH. But let's say I train really hard, and for some reason I can keep up 12 MPH going up the hill. Then going downhill I need...
2/15 - 1/12 = 1/20
to go 20 MPH. Well, that's more reasonable. Except I don't think I'll be maintaining 12 MPH up the hills around here anytime soon.
I think the moral is that hills will kill your average, and that improving your uphill speed just a bit will make a big difference to your average. So go ahead and attack the hills.
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